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09.25.2024

The world in 2100

The world in 2100 according to DALL-E-3

This article was originally published by Joe Waters on LinkedIn.

By 2100, the population of people over 80 will be twice as large as that of children under 5. Currently, the number of people over 80 is only about 25% of the number of children under five.

On the one hand, this is fabulous news. More people can hope to live longer, healthier, more productive, and more fulfilling lives. On the other hand, we must immediately contend with the implications of this long-term demographic transition—a transition that will occur over the lifetime of today’s young children.

We must ask a few questions today to ensure that tomorrow’s children, families, and communities have the best chances of flourishing.

  • Housing: Families with young children have significantly different housing needs and aspirations than older adults with mobility issues or the desire to downsize. Vice President Harris, for example, has pledged to build 3 million homes. But what will those houses look like? As we have written before, we need to support those who choose to have children with good social policies and prepare for the inevitable low birth rate in the United States to meet current housing needs Will the new housing serve only today’s needs or align with the future? Can we design 3 million homes that will work for today’s families, tomorrow’s senior citizens (who won’t necessarily be replaced in their homes by the next generation of young families), and the impacts of climate disruption?
  • Health care: How many pediatric primary care physicians will we need in 2100? In the United States, we will see a 25% decline in the number of children under the age of five in the next 75 years. Many more healthcare providers will need to be trained in geriatrics in the years ahead and, very likely, fewer will need to be trained in pediatrics. Combined with other trends in artificial intelligence and reliance on advanced practice providers, what is the future of general pediatrics, and how can we better plan for health care that supports human flourishing across the life course in the next 75 years?
  • Care: By 2100, a quarter of the world’s population will be 65 and older. Rich—and demographically stagnating—countries will need to reach some sort of political peace on the topic of immigration as they are very likely to become wholly dependent upon mostly immigrant caregivers to look after their populations.
  • Child care and Education: With about 7 million American children in licensed child care today, what does a 25% decline in the under-five population look like for the systems we will need tomorrow? More urgently, how will we pay for that system while governments struggle to provide social care for the exploding number of people living well into their 80s, 90s, and beyond?

The aging population is a complex and politically charged issue, but it will undoubtedly have huge consequences for our societies. Rooted in our commitment to the flourishing of families and their communities, Capita endeavors to help you navigate the evolving global landscape with a sharper strategic focus and new opportunities for impact.