2020 was a year of tumult, grief, and longing expectation for what comes next. But, for our young children and their families it was particularly taxing and with significant long-term consequences. Here’s a snapshot in five graphs.
The economics of fertility
Fertility rates have been falling around the world for decades, but the economic loss and uncertainty of the Covid-19 pandemic are likely to drive fertility rates down even further in the coming years. Recessions and unemployment lead to fewer babies. Recent studies have found that a one percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with a 1-2 percent decrease in birth rates. The large decline in fertility rates associated with the 2008-2009 Great Recession resulted in 400,000 fewer births. At the same time, the picture becomes more complicated when one considers unemployment by gender. One of the above studies found that while improving job prospects for men was linked to higher fertility rates, improving prospects for women had an opposite (though smaller) effect, perhaps because a stronger job market for women increased their opportunity costs of having a child. Beyond the labor market itself, recent surveys have indicated that the costs of child care and student loan debts are also causing people to delay child bearing.
Women with children face extra hurdles at work, and many are leaving the workforce
The unequal sharing of the child care burden between women and men as schools have remained closed or in hybrid mode since early March has meant that more women than men are leaving the workforce to care for their kids. The Women in the Workplace report by Lean In and McKinsey estimated that one in three women could scale back their careers or leave the workforce entirely. Even those women who remain in the workforce may see their careers stalled. More than half of women in dual career couples report being responsible for most or all household chores. Working women also report that workplace cultures are less welcoming of women than they are of men balancing work and caregiving.
Extreme weather and childhood trauma
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record. Over the past decade, wildfires in the American West have displaced tens of thousands. According to one estimate, the Bushfires in Australia triggered 65,000 new displacements between July 2019 and February 2020. Many, many studies have shown that the disruption – to daily life, to family, to neighborhood social fabric – exact a huge toll on children. One study that compared children who experienced Hurricane Katrina to a comparable group who did not found that the former were five times more likely to experience severe emotional disturbance. Another found higher incidence of PTSD. A study of children in Pakistan during an earthquake found that those who lived closer to the epicenter had lower test scores in the following years. As extreme weather events become more commonplace, we need to develop systems that will address the needs of these traumatized children.
The price of our frayed social fabric
Several broad social trends paint an ominous picture of the U.S.. Trust in our institutions has been declining for decades. A majority of Americans report declining trust in both government and their fellow citizens, according to a recent Pew study. The same study noted that a majority also believed that these declines made it more difficult to solve the “big” problems facing society (like access to health care, which respondents ranked as the most important problem). More immediately, rapid technological and social changes increase our need for social institutions to address the needs of citizens. When we fail to address those needs, and fail to confront their structural causes, he costs are all to clear. Life expectancy is beginning to decline. “Deaths of despair” are on the rise, linked to economic insecurity, frayed social ties, and untreated opioid addiction. It will be impossible to address these challenges if we do not also address our declining faith in our institutions, our government, and each other.
And, from women leaving the workforce to the effects of climate change, we know that Black and brown children are likely to be disproportionately harmed — making 2020 even worse for children of color.
Joe Waters is the Co-Founder + CEO of Capita. Timothy Green is the Senior Researcher & Data Analyst at Openfields.
Graphs by the Southpaw Collective. Photo by Immo Wegmann on Unsplash.